The basketball matches from NBA allow every bettor to create many different betting strategies. It is mostly because of the huge number of matches every team plays in the league. Besides, basketball is a sport that gives much more betting information than football for example, as the teams score many points, which allows better statistical analysis for the class of every team.
That is why recently I have focused my efforts on basketball and especially on the NBA matches.
My latest betting system, which is connected with NBA matches, involves considering the last six matches of each team. The system is extremely simple, but effective enough.
To use this betting system I record the home and away results of each team. When I make my betting predictions for the matches I write down in an excel sheet the total points scored by the host in their last six home matches. In another excel cell I write down the number of points scored against the host in their last six home matches. Then I do the same for the guests where I take into account only their matches away from home.
When I have the needed betting data, I calculate the difference between the numbers of scored and allowed points, thus getting a positive or a negative number. This number or let’s call it a team factor is the number which shows the team’s strength.
Based on this number I divide the teams into five groups, where the higher number means a stronger team. All that remains to do is to carefully track how the teams in one group are presented against the teams in other groups.
When I get enough betting data about every possible match, I start looking for a good value bet.
The information I collect is mostly related to the exact difference of a victory of either teams, as well as the margin suggested by the bookmaker.
So far the system runs more than successful as it allows with an additional analysis of matches to achieve very good results in my bets on NBA basketball matches.
About a week ago, I decided to start a new betting system that seemed very promising and I have already made my first bets on it. In the following lines, I will describe its first results.
The core of this betting system is about searching for matches with a high chance of finishing in a tie and breaking the bet for these matches in two – one part of the bet goes for a draw and the other part goes to an odd number of goals scored in the match.
Thus covering all possible outcomes where the win goes to one of the teams by one goal. The system is also winning when we have a draw in the match.
The losers are only when one of the teams wins with margin of 2, 4, 6 and so on.
Of course, the disadvantage of this system is the fact that it gives much less revenue and therefore we need over 70% success rate to gain some profit, but it does not seem quite impossible.
What are the first results? I played five matches in the English Premier League. Of these, four were winning bets and only the match between Chelsea and Aston Villa was unsuccessful because of Ramirez’s goal in the 93rd minute, which made the result 8:0.
What kind of conclusions can I make for this betting system? First, this is a great option for dealing with low odds for fewer than 2.5 goals. If you have such a match and wonder whether to play it because of its low odds, then you can still make a safe bet in that way.
On the other hand, this is a good option to play against the big favourites when they have a match against the middle table teams. It is clear that they can win, but there are some options where they cannot. This betting system gives you an excellent opportunity to bet. Moreover, the higher the odds for the draw are, the greater opportunities for profit the betting system gives because it increases the stakes for odd goals.
I want to point out several very important facts before I write more about my betting prediction for the match between Stoke City and Liverpool. The match will be played on the third day of Christmas in the English Premier League.
Fact number one. Stoke have never lost in the Premier League against Liverpool at home. Both teams have played four matches so far where Stoke has two wins and two draws.
Fact number two. Stoke are still unbeaten at home this season. The team has four wins and four draws and has allowed only 3 goals to their opponents.
Fact number three. Liverpool has won only twice as guest this season from 8 matches.
Fact number four. Liverpool is in the bottom of the table for teams which succeed in their goal attempts. So far the team has 12.13 average goal attempts per match and scored only 1.63 average goals per match. Most of the goals came in the victory with 2:5 over Norwich.
When making my betting prediction for the match between Stoke and Liverpool and when considering the four facts above it is really hard to understand why Liverpool are considered favorites in the match. The odds for their victory is 2.3 against 3.25 for the Stoke. The draw is estimated at 3.25.
Of course, you cannot say lightly that Stoke will win this match, but they definitely shouldn’t be put in the role of an underdog. I think the real odds for both teams are 2.6, especially since the statistics show that Liverpool hasn’t won in two consecutive matches as guest so far this season.
The fact is that the team is highly dependent on Luis Suarez and whether the Uruguayan striker has a day. Indeed, in the last game Steven Gerrard reminded his class, but now they will have against them the strongest defense in the league. Stoke is the team that let the least goals in the league – only 13.
That’s why I prefer the hosts from Stoke in this match and I will bet for them on Asian Handicap with margin of 0, 0.5, or written in another way 0.25. The odds for this bet is 1.95 proposed by Bet365.